Saturday, October 29, 2011

latest on Israel bombing Iran

The Forward
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The Political Dividends of the Shalit Deal October 28, 2011, 6:05pm
Israeli Brass Astir Amid Pressure for Iran Strike
By J.J. Goldberg
“Have the prime minister and defense minister sealed a deal between them, one on one, to attack the nuclear reactors in Iran?” So asks Nahum Barnea, commonly described as Israel’s senior and most respected political journalist, in an article leading the top of the front page of today’s Yediot Ahronot. He writes that growing rumors to that effect have created a quiet but urgent buzz within Israel’s political and military elites. They’re also troubling foreign governments, which “have a hard time understanding what is going on here”: a fateful decision that could “seal the fate of the Jewish state” for good or ill, and yet near-total silence on the topic in the public arena.

Barnea writes that the question of whether or not to attack divides Israel’s leadership into four camps. One camp says the benefits would be slim and the risks “insane,” given Iran’s ability to bombard Israel with deadly missiles from Lebanon, Gaza and Iran itself and touch off a regional war “that could destroy the state of Israel.” This camp says it’s better to focus on international sanctions, bearing in mind that if they fail and Iran does acquire nuclear weapons, “it won’t be the end of the world” — while an Israeli attack just might be.

The second camp says there’s no rush. Iran is still at least two years away from a weapon, which leaves plenty of time to let other options play out, reserving a military attack as an absolute last resort. Barnea quotes a senior American diplomat who told him Israel should back renewed negotiations on international inspections. If and when Iran turns out to be lying, an Israeli attack will have a lot more international understanding and support, which could be crucial in determining how well Israel survives the ensuing onslaught. Some Israeli cabinet ministers subscribe to this view, and suspect that the growing pressure for an immediate attack stems from “outside motives, whether personal or political.” More on that later.

The third camp consists of the heads of the military and intelligence community: IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz, military intelligence chief Aviv Kochavi, Mossad chief Tamir Pardo and Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen. All four, he writes, are opposed to the military option, just like their predecessors: respectively, Gabi Ashkenazi, Amos Yadlin, Meir Dagan and Yuval Diskin. The difference is that the current chiefs are all new in their posts and lack the standing, experience, self-confidence and temperament to “bang on the table” and restrain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defense minister Ehud Barak, as their predecessors repeatedly did.

Finally, he writes, there are “the Siamese twins,” Netanyahu and Barak, who appear to be in a distinct minority, yet have the power to make the final decision. Netanyahu, he writes, has been warning since he entered office that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the new Hitler and a new Holocaust is looming. “There are those who describe Netanyahu’s passion on the topic as an obsession,” Barnea writes. “All his life he’s dreamed of being Churcill. Iran offers him the opportunity.” As for Barak, he looks at Israel’s past attacks on nuclear installations in Iraq and (“according to foreign reports”) Syria, and figures the pattern has been set. It’s not just a strategy, he writes, it’s a legacy. Moreover, some cabinet ministers suspect Barak is driven at least partly by personal motives: with no party or constituency behind him since he left Labor, he may see a military triumph as his best ticket to a continuing role in politics.

For more details on the increasingly urgent debate on Iran inside the Israeli brass—and the role it played in the sweeping changeover in the senior command engineered by Barak and Netanyahu over the past year, here’s some of my own coverage of the struggle from August 2010, December 2010, January 2011, May 2011 and June 2011

www.rabbijonathanginsburg.com

Read more: http://blogs.forward.com/forward-thinking/145227/#ixzz1cDH94nZm

Friday, October 21, 2011

More reason not to get complacent re Iran www.rabbijonathanginsburg.org

Iran's Nuclear Program: The Full Picture - J.E. Dyer
A widely referenced Washington Post story has got folks feeling complacent about Iran's nuclear program. The piece, crediting Stuxnet and sanctions, speaks of a "sharp decline" in the output of low-enriched uranium (LEU) at the Natanz enrichment facility, along with the aging and low-performing condition of Iran's original Pakistani-design centrifuge cascades. Meanwhile, sanctions have apparently made it impossible for Iran to import high-strength maraging steel, forcing the Iranians to manufacture their newest centrifuges from less reliable carbon fiber.
But one of the most important facts is that, according to the September 2011 IAEA report, Iran had - as of mid-August 2011 - piled up a total of 4,543 kg. of LEU. By Western intelligence estimates, that is enough for 4 nuclear warheads. While the efficiency of production has declined and the Iranians are now using more centrifuges to produce the same amount of LEU, between May and August 2011, Iran still produced enough LEU on an annualized basis for a nuclear warhead per year. The writer is a retired commander who served in U.S. Naval intelligence. (Hot Air)
See also UK: Iran Nuclear Issue to Grow More Urgent - Adrian Croft
Tackling Iran's nuclear program will become more urgent over the next year and the world must not be distracted from it by the focus on the Arab Spring popular uprisings, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Tuesday. This was because Iran had stepped up its nuclear work by increasing the fissile content of its enriched uranium to the 20% level and moving centrifuge machines to a previously secret underground bunker near Qom. (Reuters)
See also Iran's Nuclear Program Suffering New Setbacks, Diplomats and Experts Say - Joby Warrick (Washington Post)
See also Report: Iran Could Make Atom Bomb Material Despite Hurdles
Iran's nuclear program is struggling with low-performing enrichment machines but it would still be able to produce material that could be used for atomic bombs, according to a U.S. think tank. "Is the Iranian enrichment program on a trajectory toward being dedicated to producing weapon-grade uranium for nuclear weapons?" the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) asked and replied: "Unfortunately, despite its severe limitations, this program is able to do so." (Reuters)

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

How awful iran is

UN Report Rips Iran's Human Rights Record - Barbara Slavin
A UN report by Ahmed Shaheed, the new UN "Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran," condemns the Iranian regime for wide-ranging human right abuses, including the secret killings of hundreds of prisoners under mysterious circumstances. Hundreds of political activists, journalists, students, filmmakers, lawyers, environmentalists, women's advocates, members of ethnic and religious minorities, dissident clerics, and Iranians with ties to Western countries have been swept into the prisons of the Islamic Republic since the disputed 2009 presidential election.
There have been more than 200 "officially announced" executions in 2011 and at least 146 secret ones in a prison in the eastern city of Mashhad. Last year, 300 people were secretly executed there, the report says. More than 100 Iranians under age 18 remain on death row. (Foreign Policy)
Read the Report: Human Rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran (United Nations)
News Resources - Israel an

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

But don't get complacent

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/irans-nuclear-program-suffering-new-setbacks-diplomats-and-experts-say/2011/10/17/gIQAByndsL_print.html

Iran’s nuclear program suffering new setbacks, diplomats and experts say

By Joby Warrick, Monday, October 17, 4:33 PM

Iran’s nuclear program, which stumbled badly after a reported cyber attack last year, appears beset by poorly performing equipment, shortages of parts and other woes as global sanctions exert a mounting toll, Western diplomats and nuclear experts say.
The new setbacks are surfacing at a time when Iran faces growing international pressure, including allegations that Iranian officials backed a clumsy attempt to kill a Saudi diplomat in Washington. Analysts say Iran has become increasingly frustrated and erratic as political change sweeps the region and its nuclear program struggles.
Although Iran continues to stockpile enriched uranium in defiance of U.N. resolutions, two new reports portray the country’s nuclear program as riddled with problems as scientists struggle to keep older equipment working.
At Iran’s largest nuclear complex, near the city of Natanz, fast-spinning machines called centrifuges churn out enriched uranium. But its output is steadily declining as the equipment ages and breaks down, according to an analysis of data collected by U.N. nuclear officials.
Iran has vowed to replace the older machines with models that are faster and more efficient. Yet new centrifuges recently introduced at Natanz contain parts made from an inferior type of metal that is weaker and more prone to failure, according to a report by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington nonprofit group widely regarded for its analysis of nuclear programs.
“Without question, they have been set back,” said David Albright, president of the institute and a former inspector for the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Although the problems are not fatal for Iran’s nuclear ambitions, they have “hurt Iran’s ability to break out quickly” into the ranks of the world’s nuclear powers, Albright said.
U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that Iran’s clerical leaders are seeking to rapidly acquire the technical capability to make nuclear weapons, though there are indications that top officials have not yet firmly committed to building the bomb. Iran maintains that its nuclear intentions are peaceful.
Western diplomats and nuclear experts say Iranian officials have been frustrated and angered by the program’s numerous setbacks, including deadly attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists. Four Iranian scientists have been killed by unidentified assailants since 2007, and a fifth narrowly escaped death in an attempted car-bombing.
Feeling besieged
Some U.S. officials have suggested that the alleged plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Washington was emblematic of the frustration and disarray within Iran’s ruling elite at a time when internal unrest has destabilized the nation’s closest Arab ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
U.S. officials have said that the alleged assassination plot originated from elements within Iran’s elite Quds Force, a covert paramilitary group. But it is not clear whether the nation’s top leaders knew about or approved the plan.
The alleged $1.5 million scheme fell apart when an Iranian American accomplice sought to hire a Mexican hit man who in reality was an undercover informant for the Drug Enforcement Administration.
“It could be an outgrowth of the fact that we’ve crossed a red line in the Iranians’ eyes,” said a senior administration official involved in high-level discussions of Iran policy.
“We’re used to seeing them do bad things, but this plot was so bizarre, it could be a sign of desperation, a reflection of the fact that they’re feeling under siege,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he had not been cleared to discuss the matter publicly.
Albright noted that Iran has behaved erratically in other arenas as well, using novel tactics to try to gain advanced materials and technology for its nuclear program and weapons systems.
“Their procurement efforts are less thought-through, and they’re getting caught a lot more, which suggests that they are becoming more desperate,” he said.
The Obama administration has sought to use the revelations of the alleged plot to rally international support for stronger sanctions and other measures to discourage Iran from seeking to become a nuclear power.
In Tehran, officials said Monday that they were ready to investigate allegations by the United States that the Quds Force plotted to kill Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir. “We are ready to patiently investigate any issue, even if it’s fabricated,” Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. “We also asked America to give us the information related to this scenario.”
Salehi and other Iranian officials, however, continued to maintain that Iran had nothing to do with the alleged plot, which they dismissed as a ‘bad Hollywood script.” The plot allegations have seriously strained Iran’s already fragile relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.
In an interview on al-Jazeera English on Monday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the Obama administration made the allegations to divert attention from its own economic problems.
“Why has the U.S. administration leveled this accusation?” Ahmadinejad said. “The truth will be revealed in the end.”
Sharp decline in output
The studies of Iran’s struggling uranium program draw on data collected by U.N. officials who conduct regular inspections of Iran’s facilities to ensure that the nation is not diverting the enriched product into a military weapons program.
The inspectors’ report documented a sharp drop in output in 2009 and 2010, providing the first confirmation of a major equipment failure linked to a computer virus dubbed Stuxnet. Western diplomats and nuclear experts say Stuxnet’s designer intended to attack and disable thousands of first-generation centrifuges at Natanz, undercutting Iran’s ability to make a nuclear bomb. Many experts suspect Israel created the virus, perhaps with U.S. help, but neither nation has acknowledged any role.
Iranian scientists replaced more than 1,000 crippled machines. Afterward the Natanz plant appeared to quickly recover, and production rates soared to surpass levels seen before the attack. Yet, the gains have not lasted, according to the analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security.
Although Iran has managed to squeeze enriched uranium from the plant at a consistent rate, it needs many more centrifuges to produce the amount of enriched uranium the plant was making two years ago.
The decline could stem from the lingering effects of the cyber attack, or it could indicate that Iran’s centrifuges are simply wearing out. In any case, the decline is so significant that Natanz is incapable of fulfilling the needs of the country’s only nuclear power plant, the report said.
Iran has boasted about the performance of its next-generation centrifuges, which its scientists began installing over the summer. The upgraded equipment — at least four times as efficient as the older models — were to be installed at Natanz and in a bunker near the ancient city of Qom, where they would be less vulnerable to airstrikes.
In prototypes, critical components of the machines were made of a high-strength metal known as maraging steel. But the machines that arrived at Natanz in recent weeks had parts made of a less robust material known as carbon fiber, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
Correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this report.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

why no conversation? www.rabbijonathanginsburg.com

Iran Iran Iran in all the discussion about the Iran backed effort to kill Saudi ambassador on US spoil note 1. virtually no conversation about the effort was also to bomb the Israeli Embassay and much much worse, 2. notice how virtually no talk about the impending Iran nuclear weapons developement and their determimnation to destroy Israel and the US? Sanctions are a joke. why is no one in this country talking about going to do the responsible thing and stop them with force?

Iran's continuing terror

Obama Says Facts Support Accusation of Iranian Plot - Helene Cooper
President Obama vowed on Thursday to push for what he called the "toughest sanctions" against Iran, saying that the U.S. had strong evidence that Iranian officials were complicit in a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. Obama insisted that American officials "know that he [the alleged Iranian-American perpetrator] had direct links, was paid by, and directed by individuals in the Iranian government." "We would not be bringing forward a case unless we knew exactly how to support all the allegations that are contained in the indictment." Obama promised to "apply the toughest sanctions and continue to mobilize the international community to make sure that Iran is further and further isolated and pays a price for this kind of behavior." (New York Times)
See also U.S. Talks Tough to Iran, But Holds Off on Harsher Moves - Mark Landler and Helene Cooper (New York Times)
Intelligence Links Iran to Saudi Diplomat's Murder - David Ignatius
U.S. and Saudi officials believe Iranian operatives were behind the May 16 murder of a Saudi diplomat in Karachi, Pakistan - adding more evidence that Tehran has engaged in high-risk covert actions beyond the allegations of a Washington assassination plot made in a Justice Department indictment Tuesday. Hassan al-Qahtani, a Saudi security official working at their consulate in Karachi, was gunned down in July about 200 feet from his office by a man on a motorbike. A Saudi official said Thursday that his country and the U.S. agree that Iran's Quds Force was involved in the Karachi killing. The official said that Pakistani intelligence had identified the killer as a member of the Shiite dissident group known as Sapih Mohammed, which has connections with the Quds Force.
The Saudi official also said that Gholam Shakuri, the Quds Force official named in Tuesday's indictment, was an important Quds Force case officer who had helped organize militant Shiite protesters in Bahrain. (Washington Post)
See also Text of Indictment in Iranian Plot to Murder Saudi Ambassador (U.S. Department of Justice)
Militants Aided by Iran Fired at American Forces in Iraq - Michael S. Schmidt
Militants trained and financed by Iran's Quds Force attacked U.S. forces in Iraq on Wednesday, American officials said. The militants fired rockets at American forces at Contingency Operating Station Garry Owen in the southern province of Maysan, which borders Iran. The military said three soldiers were wounded in the assault.
The Quds Force has one goal, according to the officials and analysts: weakening Iraq so it is even more dependent on Iran. "The Quds Force is the Iranian government's arm that deals directly with Iraq," said Kenneth M. Pollack, an expert on national security issues at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "Since 2006, all of Iran's relations and operations in Iraq have been in the Quds Force's portfolio." (New York Times)
U.S. Accuses Syrian-Born Man of

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Santorum willing to go to war to stop Iran www.rabbijonathanginsburg.info

http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Stop-Iran-from-getting-nuclear-bombs/275578969135142

Santorum on the threat of Iran's nuclear weapons program
Posted by
CNN's Diana Ozemebhoya
Washington (CNN) – GOP presidential hopeful Rick Santorum said Thursday that as president he would use "whatever means necessary" to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear program, including going to war.

In an effort to halt the steps he says Iran is taking to grow a nuclear weapons program, the former Pennsylvania senator said on CNN's "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer" that in addition to using covert operations he would order "actual operations within the country to make sure the program does not continue."

Obama responds limpedly about Iran again www.RabbiJonathan

bama responds limpedly about Iran again www.RabbiJonathanGinsburg.info
He is mad about Iran trying to kill Saudi ambassador in US. Lauds his efforts so far to curb Iran. But
1. White House Wants to Stall Iran Sanctions
Wednesday, 16 Dec 2009 09:59 AM
By Kenneth R. Timmerman
Even before the House overwhelmingly passed long-stalled legislation Tuesday to impose sanctions on foreign suppliers of refined petroleum products to Iran, the Obama administration had asked the Senate to hold off on approving new sanctions on Iran until early next year.
In a little-noticed move Friday, Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg wrote to Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. John Kerry, D.-Mass., urging him not to move similar legislation in the Senate because it “might weaken rather than strengthen international unity and support for our efforts.”
The Obama White House has used similar arguments in the past to forestall the House sanctions bill, which Democrats held for six months before finally voting it out of committee in frustration mid-October.
2. Obama to Iran: U.S. offer of dialogue still stands
By Jeff Mason And Ross Colvin Sat Mar 20 2010

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Barack Obama renewed his administration’s offer of dialogue and diplomacy with Tehran on Saturday, a year after his offer of a new beginning with Iran failed to achieve concrete results.
Obama, who addressed Iranians in a new videotaped appeal to mark the observance of Nowruz — a festival celebrating the arrival of spring — has pledged to pursue aggressive sanctions to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
"We are working with the international community to hold the Iranian government accountable because they refuse to live up to their international obligations," Obama said in the address released by the White House.
"But our offer of comprehensive diplomatic contacts and dialogue stands." …
During his first year in office, Obama marked Nowruz with an unprecedented message offering Iran a "new beginning" of diplomatic engagement with the United States.

3. Why is there no mention of the plot including bombing the Israeli embassy too? Doesn't Israel matter at all to him?
By JOHN STEVENS and OLIVER TREE
Last updated at 8:36 AM on 13th October 2011
House Speaker John Boehner today called on Obama to 'hold Iran's feet to the fire' in the wake of the thwarting of a 'significant terrorist act' by agents working for the Iranian government to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to America in Washington DC.
Vice President Joe Biden this morning said that 'nothing has been taken off the table' as the U.S. discusses possible sanctions and military action. He said the consequences for Iran will be 'serious'.
Retaliation: House Speaker John Boehner called on Obama to 'hold Iran's feet to the fire' after the plot was uncovered
He is accused of plotting to kill Adel Al-Jubeir by bombing a restaurant, before setting off blasts at the Saudi and Israeli embassies.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2047939/US-foils-Iran-terror-plot-kill-Saudi-ambassador-Washington-D-C.html#ixzz1agJRoLYA